More on The First Debate
Briant posted a great comment on my recent debate post, bringing up an issue I thought would be more appropriate to address here, since it lets me flesh out my opinion on the matter…
from Briant’s comment:
“…Kerry won the debate. he was more calm and collected, more articulate…”
This part of the comment goes to the heart of the matter.
I look at the debates as a method to help a candidate win the election, pure and simple. I don’t think strategists for either candidate went into the debate hoping their candidate would be more calm, collected, or articulate. They went in hoping that 3 days after the debate, their candidate would improve in the polls.
That’s the bottom line. There isn’t one honest person in the country who goes into a debate expecting Bush to wax eloquent on the nuances of anything. He’s not a great public speaker. Bill Clinton was a great public speaker. But Bush connects with people. In 2000 everybody was saying how Gore did well in the debate, and then BAM it was Bush who actually got more support out of the debates.
Hence, if you ask people “Who won the debate?” it is Kerry 53%, Bush 37%. But ask “Who was more believable?” and you get Bush 50%, Kerry 45%. Or “Who was more likable?” Bush 48%, Kerry 41%. And the numbers on being “tough enough for the job” and “handling Iraq” are landslides for Bush.
In other words, to answer the question “Who won the debate?” we shouldn’t focus on the poll question “Who won the debate?”. If Kerry had actually won the debate, from my point of view, the poll numbers would have shifted in his direction. But he failed to change anyone’s mind, which seems to be the purpose of debating.
Conclusion: It was essentially a draw in the polls. Bush continued to look strong, and Kerry didn’t seem to change anybody’s opinion of him on the issues. And that can only be good news for Bush’s campaign and bad news for Kerry’s.
UPDATE: Reports are now being trumpeted by the media about Bush’s lead disappearing. See Powerline for an explanation of the new Newsweek poll. Rasmussen actually has Bush extending his lead by less than a point (now 48.6% to 45.6%).
EVEN MORE: It looks like USA Today is now showing a dead heat, perhaps this is the Kerry bounce? Or the Kerry spin bounce?
4 Responses to “More on The First Debate”
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it sounds like briant watched the debate in the company of his wife.
briant, you might like what gregg of MWP wrote the morning after the debate [link]. but if you read that, read mark steyn, too, who tries to explain WHY. [here]
I just looked up on the Drudgereport and it has video of Kerry pulling out something from his suit pocket and placing it on the podium. The rules state that the candidate cannot take anything with him to the podium himself. Which begs the question…did Kerry take a cheat sheet with him? Very interesting.
miguel, it’s funny you should mention that. throughout the debate, i felt like kerry was reading from the transcript of “farenheit 9/11″.
Doug:
Great posts on the debate.
Your Father